Economics

国际政策协作的麻烦

Nov 24, 2015 Jeffrey Frankel

博洛尼亚—在经历了30年的间歇后，宏观经济政策的国际协作似乎又回到了决策者的日程当中。原因不难理解：大部分国家增长依然萎靡，许多人担心美联储即将到来的升息。不幸的是，让协作陷入停顿的原因仍然存在。

国际政策协作的黄金时代是1978—1987年，始于1978年波恩G-7峰会，也包括1985年广场协议。但对这些合作的质疑一直存在。比如，德国人后悔在波恩峰会上同意加入了共同财政扩张，因为在通胀肆虐的20世纪70年代末期，再通胀是一个错误的目标。类似地，日本人在广场协议成功地让高估的美元实现贬值后也开始后悔让日元升值。

此外，新兴市场国家在全球治理中的代表力与它们的经济和货币的日益重要的角色并不匹配。这些国家的成功成为国际协作的一大障碍。

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 8 Comments on this article

Steve Hurst Nov 29, 2015

'Some believe that the way to overcome competitive depreciation for good is to fix exchange rates'

That worked real well in the Eurozone didnt it
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Nurbek Achilov Nov 24, 2015

Dr. Frankel, it is good overview and comparison of cases from different periods and systems. It shows indeed in its foundation the similarity of cases. So my conclusions is the following: 1) national currencies in the international trade is the most risky means of payment if not addequately regulated; 2) Regulations can lead to serious structural problems as competitiveness of economies is not based on resources, technology and human quality but on currency; 3) To resolve the global trade and value creation of nations, the countries should create a single currency based on accepted gold standard with fixed exchange price between gold and world single currency. It will create real value for countries by which they will gradually to take the global currency, eliminating local currencies in the future. Surely, we need research on this subject to resolve the troubles with international policy coordination. 4) The euro-dollar rate is almost the same, I do believe the creation of single euro-dollar zone with a single currency is in near future.
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Jan Smith Nov 24, 2015

International economic conflict is due entirely to false beliefs ("interpretations," "scapegoating," etc.)?

So when the Germans refuse to run larger fiscal deficits, they are worried only about the prudence of investors, not about the German current account?

East Asian currency pegs have had no effect on American wages?

And QE had no effect on the Brazilian real?

What a strange world! Rampant military conflict but no real economic conflict, merely irrationality.

We wish.
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hari naidu Nov 24, 2015

Jeffrey, the joker in the pack is not G20, G7, but IMF & WTO.
Since downfall of Doha Round, WTO has gone into hibernation. Why?
You know more about it than anyone else & it behooves some serious consideration principally because monetary policy cannot resolve the fiscal malaise within OECD countries; let alone emerging markets.
It's high time to designate IMF to find a resolution of the policy coordination problem; and, if so required/agreed, make it the Secretariat of G20.
Without the capacity of setting the global agenda...there is no way to grapple with the mounting issue of macro policy coordination.
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douglas ungredda Nov 24, 2015

So then what solution you'd advocate Dr Frankel? Given these assumptions , then the world seems trapped in a "damn if you do and damn if you don't coordinate" situation.
Whats tragic is that no one seems to take the lead and precisely knowing what must be done and sell a collection action solution in a persuasive manner. All this compounded by negative perceptions of failed past efforts and mutual suspicions. Let's hope for goodness sake you' re wrong!
- Jeffrey Frankel Nov 25, 2015
  
  To Douglas Ungredda,
  You ask what I advocate. There is a lot to be said about what constitutes good economic policy, of course. But a short answer is that each country should try to follow moderately counter-cyclical fiscal and monetary policy (around a long-run average of 2% inflation and a budget balance sufficient to gradually bring down the future ratio of debt/GDP). A country with a floating exchange rate can do that without needing to coordinate with others.
  JF
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Hans Blommestein Nov 24, 2015

Good piece
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Hans Blommestein Nov 24, 2015

Good and realistic piece. For additional information and arguments, see: Hans J. Blommestein (ed.), The Reality of International Policy Co-ordination, Elsevier Publishers (1991)
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国际政策协作的麻烦

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