Trump in Alabama during victory tour Mark Wallheiser/Stringer

Internationale Barrieren für Trumps Wirtschaftsplan

DUBAI – Der designierte US-Präsident Donald Trump dürfte im eigenen Land einigermaßen freie Bahn für die Umsetzung seines Wirtschaftsprogramms haben: Dank der Mehrheit der Republikaner in beiden Kammern des Kongresses, wird er wahrscheinlich von der Beendigung des seit sechs Jahren herrschenden politischen Stillstandes profitieren. Aber die Wirtschaft der Vereinigten Staaten existiert nicht im luftleeren Raum. Wenn er erfolgreich für das hohe Wachstum und die echte finanzielle Stabilität sorgen will, die er versprochen hat, wird er Unterstützung aus dem Ausland benötigen.

Infrastrukturinvestitionen, Steuerreformen und Deregulierung sind die zentralen Bestandteile der Strategie, mit der Trump das tatsächliche und das potenzielle Wachstum der US-Wirtschaft ankurbeln will. Voller Zuversicht, dass sich sein Plan wie gewünscht entwickeln wird, hat er ehrgeizige Ziele festgelegt, unter anderem fast 4% BIP-Wachstum pro Jahr.

Die Anleger scheinen vorerst recht angetan zu sein. In der Annahme, dass die neue Regierung Trump letztlich darauf verzichten wird, einen Handelskrieg zu entfesseln, haben sie bereits optimistische Aussichten für höheres reales Wachstum, höhere Inflation und weiteres Geld eingepreist, das in die Finanzmärkte fließt. Das hat die US-Notenbank in die Lage versetzt, ihren geldpolitischen Kurs zu normalisieren. Zusätzlich zu einer Erhöhung des Leizinses um 25 Basispunkte am 14. Dezember hat die Fed angedeutet, dass es 2017 mehrere weitere Zinsschritte geben wird.

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