Trump in Alabama during victory tour Mark Wallheiser/Stringer

特朗普经济计划的国际壁垒

迪拜—美国当选总统唐纳德·特朗普应该有一个相对明确的国内政策方向,以便实施其经济计划:在共和党同时控制国会两院多数的情况下,他似乎有望从政治僵局被打破中获益。过去六年来,政治僵局让美国经济陷入瘫痪。但美国经济并非存在于真空中。特朗普要想成功实现他所承诺的高增长和真正的金融稳定,就需要来自海外的助力。

特朗普已经确定基础设施投资、税收改革和去监管化为其提振美国实际和潜在增长战略的要素。他信心满满地认定他的计划可以如愿展开,因此制定了雄心勃勃的目标,包括GDP增长要达到每年4%。

就目前而言,投资者似乎非常买账。他们认定即将履新的特朗普政府最终能够保持克制,不发动贸易战,因此迅速下注于乐观前景——更高的实际增长、更高的通胀和更多资金流入金融市场。这使得美联储能够开始其货币政策立场的正常化,除了12月14日加息25个基点,美联储还表示2017年的加息节奏将会更快。

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