Интегрируя Магриб

РАБАТ. «Жасминовая революция» в Тунисе пролила свет на последствия застоя в экономике и эндемической безработицы среди молодежи авторитарным арабским правительствам региона. Менее заметным оказался ключевой фактор, способствующий этому недомоганию: неспособность стран Магриба ‑ Алжира, Ливии, Мавритании, Марокко и Туниса – увеличить свое экономическое сотрудничество.

По оценкам Арабского союза, недостаточная региональная интеграция стоит каждой стране два процента ежегодного роста ВВП, в то время как Африканская экономическая комиссия считает, что если бы существовал магрибский союз, то каждая из пяти стран получила бы 5% ВВП. По оценкам Всемирного банка более глубокая интеграция, в том числе либерализация сферы услуг и реформа правил инвестирования, могла бы увеличить реальный ВВП на душу населения в 2005-2015 годах на 34% в Алжире, 27% в Марокко и 24% в Тунисе.

Эти страны больше не могут позволить себе ждать. Если они сохранят темпы роста за последние пять лет, то им понадобится более двадцати лет, чтобы достигнуть уровня текущих доходов на душу населения менее богатых стран-членов ОЭСР Мексики и Турции.

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