Il processo di integrazione del Maghreb

RABAT – La “rivoluzione del gelsomino” in Tunisia ha messo in luce le conseguenze delle economie stagnanti e della disoccupazione giovanile endemica della regione dei governi autoritari arabi. Un fattore chiave che è invece passato inosservato e che ha comunque contribuito a questo malessere è stata l’incapacità dei paesi del Maghreb (Algeria, Libia, Mauritania, Marocco e Tunisia) di intensificare la loro cooperazione economica.

L’Unione Araba ha infatti stimato che la mancanza di integrazione regionale comporta per ciascun paese un costo pari a due punti percentuali della crescita del PIL. Da parte sua la Commissione Economica per l’Africa ritiene che, qualora esistesse un’Unione del Maghreb, ciascuno dei cinque paesi guadagnerebbe il 5% del PIL. La Banca Mondiale ha a sua volta valutato che una maggiore integrazione, unita ad una liberalizzazione dei servizi e ad un’eventuale riforma delle norme di investimento, avrebbe comportato un aumento del PIL reale pro capite nel periodo compreso tra il 2005 ed il 2015 del 34% per l’Algeria, del 27% per il Marocco e del 24% per la Tunisia.

Questi paesi non possono più permettersi di aspettare. Qualora mantenessero i tassi di crescita registrati negli ultimi cinque anni, ci vorrebbero più di vent’anni per raggiungere il reddito pro capite dei membri meno abbienti dell’OCSE come Messico e Turchia.

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