Das Problem der falschen Absicherung in Schwellenländern

LONDON – Im letzten Jahrzehnt waren Amerikas expansive Geldpolitik und Chinas schnelles Wachstum die beiden wichtigsten Triebfedern der globalen Finanzflüsse. Derzeit werden beide Dynamiken umgekehrt, was zu neuen Risiken für die globale Wirtschaft führt – vor allem für Schwellenländer. Ob sie diese Veränderungen bewältigen können, wird davon abhängen, ob sie sich ausreichend gegen die richtigen Risiken abgesichert haben.

Nach der Asien-Krise in den späten 1990er Jahren begannen die aufstrebenden Volkswirtschaften damit, massive Devisenreserven anzulegen, um sich gegen die Risiken einer externen Überschuldung abzusichern. Tatsächlich häuften sie wesentlich mehr an, als sie benötigten – 6,5 Billionen US-Dollar bei der letzten Zählung –, wodurch sie sich effektiv gegen externe Zahlungsbilanzschocks überversicherten.

Dagegen reicht ihre Absicherung gegen inländische Kreditrisiken nach wie vor nicht aus – die heute größte Gefahr für aufstrebende Volkswirtschaften. Nach dem Ausbruch der globalen Finanzkrise 2008 fielen die Zinssätze, was zu Kreditbooms im privaten Sektor in vielen großen Schwellenmärkten führte, darunter Brasilien, Indien, Indonesien und die Türkei.

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