Des économies émergentes mal assurées contre les risques

LONDRES – Ces dix dernières années, la politique monétaire expansionniste de l’Amérique et la croissance rapide de la Chine ont constitué les deux principaux moteurs des flux financiers à travers le monde. Ces deux dynamiques sont aujourd’hui en train de s’inverser, faisant apparaître de nouveaux risques pour l’économie mondiale – et notamment pour les pays émergents. La capacité de ces derniers capacité à surmonter les changements dépendra du niveau suffisant d’assurance qu’ils auront prévu pour faire face à un certain nombre de risques, qu’il se sera agi d’appréhender correctement.

À la suite de la crise financière asiatique de la fin des années 1990, les économies émergentes ont commencé à accumuler d’importantes réserves de change afin de se prémunir contre les risques de surendettement externe. Elles ont en réalité amassé bien plus que ce dont elles avaient besoin – 6 500 milliards $, selon les derniers chiffres – devenant ainsi surassurées contre les éventuels chocs externes de la balance des paiements.

Ces États ne se sont en revanche pas suffisamment assurés contre les risques de crédit domestique – principale menace pour les économies émergentes à l’heure actuelle. À la suite de l’apparition de la crise financière mondiale de 2008, les taux d’intérêt ont chuté, engendrant un certain nombre de booms du crédit dans le secteur privé au sein de la plupart des marchés émergents les plus importants, parmi lesquels le Brésil, l’Inde, l’Indonésie et la Turquie.

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