新兴经济体的保障错位

来自伦敦–在过去的十年中,美国的扩张性的货币政策以及中国的快速增长已成为全球金融流动的两个关键驱动。如今这两个驱动力遭到逆转,并因此产生了新的全球经济风险——尤其针对新兴国家来说。而这些国家能否可以应付这些变化将取决于能否针对相应的风险采取足够的保障措施。

在经历了20世纪90年代末的亚洲金融危机之后,新兴经济体开始积累大量外汇储备来保护自己抵御对外过度负债的风险。事实上,在最近一次统计中,它们取得了远远超过自身所需要的6.5万亿美元——在对抗外部平衡收支冲击方面来说,这显然是保障过度了。

但他们针对国内信用风险方面的保障却有所不足——这也是当前对新兴经济体的主要威胁。2008全球金融危机爆发后,利率大幅下降,刺激许多大规模新兴市场私营部门产生信贷繁荣,其中就包括巴西、印度、印尼和土耳其。

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