中国能否适应新形势?

上海——中国的“两会”(每年三月召开的一年一度的全国人民代表大会和中国人民政治协商会议)一直吸引着全球的目光。但今年的两会似乎尤为重要,这不仅因为国家领导人换届,也因为中国的经济增长放缓提出了深化改革的要求。那么,中国的新任领导人该作何对策?

问题非常简单:没人能准确预测这轮经济放缓会持续多久。当局对将年度GDP增长恢复到2009年前的水平缺乏信心,因此将官方目标调降至7.5%。

许多经济学家甚至更为悲观,指出经过三十年的快速发展,中国经济的高速增长期可能像日本那样结束。他们认为日本经济实现了超过20年的持续快速增长;但在1973年后的40年中,日本年度经济增长超过5%的情况屈指可数,并且20年来产能一直处于停滞状态。

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