Ядерные аргументы Ирана

МЕЛЬБУРН. Действительно ли Иран настойчиво стремится стать ядерной державой? Или он согласится иметь ядерный потенциал, достаточный для производства оружия, но предпочтёт не производить его? И есть ли разница?

В немногих международных вопросах ставки столь высоки, как в этом. Ближайшая проблема, если глубокий пессимизм относительно стремлений Ирана возобладает, – это превентивный удар Израиля, ведущий к новой войне на Ближнем Востоке – с вероятными катастрофическими последствиями для мировой экономики.

Не стоит недооценивать трудности в определении истинных намерений Ирана. Смешанные сигналы от соперничающих центров силы не помогают; так же как и повторяющийся контраст между обычно резкими публичными заявлениями иранских чиновников и их зачастую умеренными высказываниями в приватных разговорах. Пессимисты и скептики могут указать на продолжительное упорство Ирана и его балансирование на грани войны в отношении законной международной озабоченности его ядерной программой.

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