Einblicke in das iranische Denken zur Atomfrage

MELBOURNE – Ist der Iran wirklich fest entschlossen, zu einem Atomwaffenstaat zu werden? Oder wird er sich mit dem Potenzial zufrieden geben, Atomwaffen herstellen zu können, dies aber nicht tun? Kommt es auf den Unterschied an?

Es gibt wenige internationale Fragen, bei denen mehr auf dem Spiel steht als bei diesen. Sollte sich eine äußerst pessimistische Haltung hinsichtlich der Absichten des Iran durchsetzen, so ist zunächst ein Präventivschlag Israels zu befürchten, der zu einem weiteren großen Nahostkrieg führen könnte – mit wahrscheinlich katastrophalen Folgen für die Weltwirtschaft.

Niemand sollte die Schwierigkeit unterschätzen, die wahren Absichten des Iran zu beurteilen. Unterschiedliche Signale aus konkurrierenden Machtzentren helfen dabei nicht; ebenso wenig der Kontrast zwischen den meist scharfen öffentlichen Erklärungen der iranischen Funktionäre und ihren häufig gemäßigten privaten Äußerungen. Pessimisten und Skeptiker können auf viele Fälle in der iranischen Vergangenheit verweisen, in denen der Iran auf die legitimen Bedenken anderer Länder zu seinen Atomprogrammen mit einer Blockadehaltung und waghalsiger Politik geantwortet hat.

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