Au cour du raisonnement nucléaire de l’Iran

MELBOURNE – L’Iran est-elle déterminée à obtenir l’arme nucléaire ? Ou se contentera-t-elle d’une simple capacité nucléaire, susceptible de fabriquer des armes sans pour autant le faire ? La différence a-t-elle de l’importance ?  

Peu de questions internationales englobent des enjeux aussi forts que ceux-la. Si le profond pessimisme qui entoure les intentions iraniennes persiste, la plus grande inquiétude concerne une attaque préventive israélienne qui pourrait engendrer un nouveau conflit majeur au Moyen-Orient avec la probabilité de conséquences dramatiques pour l’économie mondiale.

Personne ne devrait sous-estimer la difficulté d’évaluer les intentions réelles de l’Iran. Et les signaux mitigés de la part de centres de pouvoir concurrents n’aident en rien ; ni d’ailleurs le contraste récurrent entre le discours iranien public, généralement claironnant, et le discours officieux, plutôt plus modéré. Les pessimistes et les sceptiques ont matière à s’inquiéter compte tenu de l’historique de cas d’obstructions et de stratégies de la corde raide de la part de l’Iran par rapport aux inquiétudes légitimes qu’éveillent ses programmes nucléaires. 

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