伊朗求核的潜台词

发自墨尔本——伊朗是否真的死心塌地要把自己变成一个核武国家?还是仅仅满足于拥有核能力,点到为止,并不打算真正制造核武器?而两者之间的区别究竟重不重要?

没有几个国际问题会比上述问题更加利害攸关。各位试想如果对伊朗意图的悲观情绪最终爆发的话,那将是一场由以色列发动的预防性袭击,并随之引发另一场中东大战——最终为世界经济带来一场毁灭性打击。

没人能轻而易举地揣摩出伊朗真正意图——列强之间彼此都在勾心斗角,由他们处传来的各种混杂在一起的信号自然不可信;而伊朗官员往往说一套做一套,公开讲话咄咄逼人,私底下却温和无比,也不可信。有鉴于伊朗过往在面对国际社会对其核计划的正当关注时所表现出来的胡搅蛮缠和边缘政策,悲观论者能找到足够的理由支持自己的观点。

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