مِن داخل المنطق النووي الإيراني

ملبورن ـ تُرى هل نستطيع أن نزعم أن إيران عاقدة العزم حقاً على التحول إلى دولة مسلحة نوويا؟ أم أنها قد تكتفي باكتساب القدرة النووية الكفيلة بتمكينها من إنتاج الأسلحة النووية وتختار ألا تنتجها؟ وهل يشكل الفارق بين الأمرين أي أهمية؟

الواقع أن قِلة من القضايا الدولية قد تشتمل على قدر أعظم من المخاطرة مقارنة بهذه القضية. ومصدر القلق المباشر هنا يتمثل في انتشار التشاؤم العميق بشأن النوايا الإيرانية، وتصاعد احتمالات إقدام إسرائيل على توجيه ضربة وقائية إلى المنشآت النووية في إيران، الأمر الذي قد يؤدي إلى اندلاع حرب كبرى أخرى في الشرق الأوسط ـ وما سيترتب على ذلك من عواقب مأساوية محتملة بالنسبة للاقتصاد العالمي.

ولا ينبغي لأحد أن يستخف بصعوبة تقييم نوايا إيران الحقيقية. فالإشارات المختلطة المتضاربة الصادرة عن مراكز القوى المتنافسة لا تساعد في التوصل إلى تقييم دقيق في هذا السياق؛ ولا يساعد أيضاً ذلك التباين الواضح بين التصريحات العامة الصاخبة التي يلقيها المسؤولون الإيرانيون عادة والأحاديث الخاصة المعتدلة في أغلب الأحيان. ويشير المتشائمون والمتشككون إلى سجل إيران الطويل في وضع العقبات وتبني سياسة حافة الهاوية في التعامل مع المخاوف الدولية المشروعة إزاء برامجها النووية.

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