Angebotsseite, Nachfrageseite oder Innovationsseite?

NEW YORK – Es ist unmöglich geworden, die so genannte säkulare Stagnation zu leugnen, von der die meisten Industriestaaten auf der ganzen Welt befallen sind: Es wird Wohlstand angehäuft, aber die Realeinkommen steigen kaum, und die Erwerbsquote befindet sich in einem Abwärtstrend. Schlimmer noch, die Politiker haben keine plausible Idee, wie sie damit umgehen können.

Die Ursache dieser Stagnation ist das seit 1970 immer langsamere Produktivitätswachstum. Die Quellen solcher Produktivitätszuwächse – indigene Innovationen – leiden (meist in den etablierten Industriebereichen) seit den späten 1960ern und insbesondere seit 2005 unter erheblicher Verstopfung.

Ronald Reagan und Margaret Thatcher betrachteten diese Stagnation der Wirtschaft seit den 1970ern von der Angebotsseite her. Um Investitionen und Wachstum zu fördern, drückten sie Steuererleichterungen auf Unternehmensgewinne und Löhne durch, deren Ergebnisse umstritten sind.

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