Spettatori innocenti

SANTIAGO – Se di questi tempi prendete un taxi a San Paolo, scoprirete un traffico esasperante e le strade disordinate di una metropoli dei paesi emergenti. Ma quando arriverà il momento di pagare la corsa, vi sembrerà di essere a Boston, Lussemburgo o Zurigo: il valore del real brasiliano, così come le valute di molti mercati emergenti, è elevato e potrebbe crescere ancora.

Le monete forti fanno i paesi forti: questo sosteneva un policymaker americano. Molti esportatori dei paesi emergenti, che lottano per trattenere i clienti nei vacillanti mercati americani ed europei, la pensano diversamente.

Per decenni i paesi in via di sviluppo hanno sognato uno stato di completa beatitudine fatto di prezzi esorbitanti delle commodity e tassi di interesse internazionali bassissimi. Ma i ministri delle finanze di Lima, Bogotà, Pretoria o Giacarta avrebbero forse dovuto fare maggiore attenzione a ciò che desideravano. Il problema? Un’invasione di flussi di capitale a breve termine che fuggono dai paesi avanzati con una crescita lenta e bassi tassi di interesse.

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