Информационная революция становится политической

НЬЮ-ДЕЛИ – Вторая годовщина «Арабской весны» в Египте была отмечена беспорядками на площади Тахрир, которые вынудили многих наблюдателей опасаться, что их оптимистичные прогнозы 2011 года не оправдались. Частично проблема заключается в том, что ожидания искажаются метафорой, с помощью которой события описываются в краткосрочной перспективе. Если бы мы вместо «арабской весны» называли происходящее «арабской революцией», наши ожидания были бы более реалистичными. Революции разворачиваются на протяжении десятилетий, а не сезонов или лет.

Рассмотрим Французскую революцию, которая началась в 1798 году. Кто бы мог предположить, что в течение десятилетия безвестный корсиканский солдат приведет французскую армию на берега Нила или что наполеоновские войны будут разрушать Европу вплоть до 1815 года?

Если мы рассуждаем об арабских революциях, то впереди нас еще ждет множество сюрпризов. До сегодняшнего момента у большинства арабских монархий было достаточно легитимности, денег и власти, чтобы устоять на волнах народных восстаний, которые смыли светских республиканских автократов, таких как Хосни Мубарак в Египте и Муаммар Каддафи в Ливии, и это всего лишь за два года революционного процесса.

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