A Revolução da Informação Torna-se Política

NOVA DELI – O segundo aniversário da "Primavera Árabe" no Egipto foi marcado por tumultos na Praça Tahrir que causaram em muitos observadores o receio de que as previsões optimistas que efectuaram em 2011 saíssem frustradas. Parte do problema resulta do facto de as expectativas terem sido distorcidas por uma metáfora que descreve os acontecimentos em termos de curto prazo. Se, em vez de "Primavera Árabe", tivesse sido utilizada a expressão "revoluções árabes", as expectativas teriam sido mais realistas. As revoluções desenrolam-se ao longo de décadas e não de estações ou de anos.

Consideremos a Revolução Francesa, que teve início em 1789. Quem poderia prever que no prazo de uma década, um soldado corso iria conduzir o exército francês até às margens do Nilo, ou que as Guerras Napoleónicas iriam agitar a Europa até 1815?

No que diz respeito às revoluções árabes, muitas surpresas ainda estão para chegar. Até agora, a maioria das monarquias árabes tinha legitimidade, poder económico e força suficientes para sobreviver às ondas de revolta popular que derrubaram autocratas republicanos seculares, como o Presidente egípcio, Hosni Mubarak e Muammar el-Qaddafi na Líbia, mas este processo revolucionário tem apenas dois anos.

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