Die politische Dimension der Informationsrevolution

NEU DELHI – Der zweite Jahrestag des „Arabischen Frühlings“ in Ägypten war von Ausschreitungen auf dem Tahrir-Platz geprägt, wodurch viele Beobachter befürchteten, dass sich ihre optimistischen Prognosen aus dem Jahr 2011 zerschlagen hätten. Teilweise liegt das Problem darin, dass die Erwartungen von einer Metapher verzerrt wurden, mit der man die Ereignisse in kurzfristige Kategorien fasste. Hätten wir statt vom „Arabischen Frühling“ von den „Arabischen Revolutionen“ gesprochen, wären auch unsere Erwartungen möglicherweise realistischer. Revolutionen entwickeln sich über Jahrzehnte und nicht über Jahre oder einzelne Jahreszeiten.

Man denke an die Französische Revolution, die im Jahr 1789 ihren Ausgang nahm. Wer hätte zu diesem Zeitpunkt geahnt, dass innerhalb eines Jahrzehnts ein unbekannter korsischer Soldat die französischen Armeen bis an die Ufer des Nils führen würde oder dass die Napoleonischen Kriege Europa bis 1815 ins Chaos stürzen würden?

Im Hinblick auf die arabischen Revolutionen werden wir noch viele Überraschungen erleben. Bislang waren die meisten arabischen Monarchien mit ausreichend Legitimität, Geld und Macht ausgestattet, um die Wellen der Volksaufstände zu überstehen, im Zuge derer säkulare, republikanische Autokraten wie Ägyptens Hosni Mubarak oder Libyens Muammar al-Gaddafi gestürzt wurden. Aber es sind erst zwei Jahre dieses revolutionären Prozesses vergangen.

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