Informační revoluce přerůstá v politickou

DILLÍ – Druhé výročí „arabského jara“ v Egyptě provázely výtržnosti na náměstí Tahrír, kvůli nimž se mnozí pozorovatelé obávají, že se jejich optimistické výhledy z roku 2011 nenaplnily. Součástí problému je i skutečnost, že tehdejší očekávání pokřivila metafora, která označila události příliš krátkodobým pojmem. Kdybychom místo „arabského jara“ mluvili o „arabských revolucích“, možná by byla očekávání realističtější. Revoluce totiž trvají desítky let, nikoliv jedno roční období či jednotlivé roky.

Vezměme si francouzskou revoluci, která vypukla v roce 1789. Kdo tehdy předpokládal, že jeden obskurní voják z Korsiky dovede během deseti let francouzskou armádu ke břehům Nilu nebo že napoleonské války budou rozvracet Evropu až do roku 1815?

Když se zamyslíme nad arabskými revolucemi, čeká nás ještě řada překvapení. Většina arabských monarchů má zatím dostatek legitimity, peněz a moci, aby přežila vlny populární revolty, které svrhly sekulární republikánské autokraty typu Husního Mubaraka v Egyptě nebo Muammara Kaddáfího v Libyi, avšak revoluční proces zatím trvá pouhé dva roky.

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