信息革命的政治化

新德里—在埃及“阿拉伯之春”迎来二周年的日子里,解放广场再次暴动。这让众多观察者担心他们在2011年的乐观预测被轻易地打破了。问题的一部分在于预期被一个描述短期事件的隐喻扭曲了。如果我们不是用“阿拉伯之春”,而是用“阿拉伯革命”,那么我们或许会形成更现实的预期。革命往往是几十年的事件,而不是几个季度或几年的事件。

就拿1789年爆发的法国大革命来说吧。谁会预测在不到十年的时间里,一位名不见经传的科西嘉士兵会率领法军来到尼罗河沿岸,或是拿破仑战争会横扫欧洲,直到1815年才结束?

想想阿拉伯革命,还有很多惊奇没有发生。目前,大部分阿拉伯君主国家都有充分的正统性、金钱和力量抵抗群众革命,被赶下台的都是世俗共和国的独裁者,如埃及的穆巴拉克和利比亚的卡扎菲。但我们进入革命模式才不过两年。

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