Bank of Japan Behrouz Mehri/Getty Images

通胀目标陷阱

布鲁塞尔—中央银行面临一个问题:世界上大部分国家增长都在加速,但通胀并没有起飞。当然,对大部分人来说,没有通胀的增长简直是理想组合。但央行,比如欧洲央行,制定的目标是实现“低于但接近2%”的通货膨胀率。此时此刻,很难说如何达到这一目标。

中央银行从来假装它们可以直接引导通胀。但自2008年全球金融危机以来,它们一直将利率保持在极低水平,并创造了非常慷慨的流动性环境。它们认为这样可以推高投资和消费。2009年,当金融市场陷入动荡、经济发生自由落体式崩溃后,美联储更进一步,启动了大规模资产购买计划,即所谓的量化宽松(QE)。欧洲央行在2014—2015年也采取了这一政策,当时,通缩眼看着(时候来看,这是错的)就要威胁到欧元区的存亡。

美联储的行动显然帮助金融市场恢复了稳定。欧洲央行也宣布,其在金融市场已经正常化后采取的债券购买政策带来了经济增长、支持了就业。但影响到此为止。

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