El cuco de la deflación

CAMBRIDGE – Los principales bancos centrales del mundo están actualmente obsesionados con aumentar las tasas de inflación de sus países hasta su meta común de aproximadamente el 2 % anual. Esto es así en Estados Unidos, donde la tasa de inflación anual fue del -0,1 % para los últimos 12 meses; en el Reino Unido, donde los datos más recientes muestran un crecimiento de los precios del 0,3 %; y para la zona del euro, donde los precios al consumidor cayeron el 0,6 %. Pero, ¿es este un problema real?

La brusca caída de los precios de los productos energéticos es la principal causa de la reciente caída de la tasa de inflación. En EE. UU., la tasa de inflación básica (que elimina los cambios en los precios volátiles de la energía y los alimentos) fue del 1,6 % en los últimos 12 meses. Por otra parte, la Reserva Federal de EE. UU., el Banco de Inglaterra y el Banco Central Europeo entienden que, incluso si los precios de la energía no suben el año próximo, un nivel de precios estable para el petróleo y otras formas de energía llevará a un aumento de la tasa de inflación.

En EE. UU., La tasa de inflación también ha estado deprimida por el aumento del valor del dólar respecto del euro y otras monedas, que ha llevado a una caída de los precios de las importaciones. Esto también es un «efecto nivel», implica que la tasa de inflación aumentará una vez que el tipo de cambio del dólar deje de apreciarse.

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