El cuco de la deflación

CAMBRIDGE – Los principales bancos centrales del mundo están actualmente obsesionados con aumentar las tasas de inflación de sus países hasta su meta común de aproximadamente el 2 % anual. Esto es así en Estados Unidos, donde la tasa de inflación anual fue del -0,1 % para los últimos 12 meses; en el Reino Unido, donde los datos más recientes muestran un crecimiento de los precios del 0,3 %; y para la zona del euro, donde los precios al consumidor cayeron el 0,6 %. Pero, ¿es este un problema real?

La brusca caída de los precios de los productos energéticos es la principal causa de la reciente caída de la tasa de inflación. En EE. UU., la tasa de inflación básica (que elimina los cambios en los precios volátiles de la energía y los alimentos) fue del 1,6 % en los últimos 12 meses. Por otra parte, la Reserva Federal de EE. UU., el Banco de Inglaterra y el Banco Central Europeo entienden que, incluso si los precios de la energía no suben el año próximo, un nivel de precios estable para el petróleo y otras formas de energía llevará a un aumento de la tasa de inflación.

En EE. UU., La tasa de inflación también ha estado deprimida por el aumento del valor del dólar respecto del euro y otras monedas, que ha llevado a una caída de los precios de las importaciones. Esto también es un «efecto nivel», implica que la tasa de inflación aumentará una vez que el tipo de cambio del dólar deje de apreciarse.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.


Log in

  1. Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images

    The Brexit Surrender

    European Union leaders meeting in Brussels have given the go-ahead to talks with Britain on post-Brexit trade relations. But, as European Council President Donald Tusk has said, the most difficult challenge – forging a workable deal that secures broad political support on both sides – still lies ahead.

  2. The Great US Tax Debate

    ROBERT J. BARRO vs. JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS on the impact of the GOP tax  overhaul.

    • Congressional Republicans are finalizing a tax-reform package that will reshape the business environment by lowering the corporate-tax rate and overhauling deductions. 

    • But will the plan's far-reaching changes provide the boost to investment and growth that its backers promise?

    ROBERT J. BARRO | How US Corporate Tax Reform Will Boost Growth

    JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS | Robert Barro's Tax Reform Advocacy: A Response

  3. Murdoch's Last Stand?

    Rupert Murdoch’s sale of 21st Century Fox’s entertainment assets to Disney for $66 billion may mark the end of the media mogul’s career, which will long be remembered for its corrosive effect on democratic discourse on both sides of the Atlantic. 

    From enabling the rise of Donald Trump to hacking the telephone of a murdered British schoolgirl, Murdoch’s media empire has staked its success on stoking populist rage.

  4. Bank of England Leon Neal/Getty Images

    The Dangerous Delusion of Price Stability

    Since the hyperinflation of the 1970s, which central banks were right to combat by whatever means necessary, maintaining positive but low inflation has become a monetary-policy obsession. But, because the world economy has changed dramatically since then, central bankers have started to miss the monetary-policy forest for the trees.

  5. Harvard’s Jeffrey Frankel Measures the GOP’s Tax Plan

    Jeffrey Frankel, a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a former member of President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers, outlines the five criteria he uses to judge the efficacy of tax reform efforts. And in his view, the US Republicans’ most recent offering fails miserably.

  6. A box containing viles of human embryonic Stem Cell cultures Sandy Huffaker/Getty Images

    The Holy Grail of Genetic Engineering

    CRISPR-Cas – a gene-editing technique that is far more precise and efficient than any that has come before it – is poised to change the world. But ensuring that those changes are positive – helping to fight tumors and mosquito-borne illnesses, for example – will require scientists to apply the utmost caution.

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now