Paul Lachine

Inflation oder Deflation?

CAMBRIDGE: Die Anleger, mit denen ich in diesen Tagen spreche, sind sich nicht sicher, ob sie sich mehr Sorgen über eine kommende Inflation in den USA oder eine kommende Deflation machen sollen. Die gute Nachricht ist, dass Sie sich als Anleger – zumindest, was die nächsten Jahre angeht – über keins von beiden sorgen sollten.

Amerikas hohe Arbeitslosenquote und die niedrigen Kapazitätsauslastungsraten implizieren, dass es in den USA kaum einen Aufwärtsdruck bei Löhnen und Preisen gibt. Und der jüngste Anstieg des Dollars gegenüber dem Euro und dem britischen Pfund hilft, indem er die Einfuhrkosten verringert.

Diejenigen, die das Inflationsrisiko herausstellen, verweisen häufig auf Amerikas enormes Haushaltsdefizit. Das Haushaltsamt des US-Kongresses prognostiziert für den Rest des Jahrzehnts ein US- Haushaltsdefizit von durchschnittlich 5% vom BIP. Dies würde die Staatsverschuldung auf 90% vom BIP erhöhen – von weniger als 60% vom BIP im Jahre 2009. Derart große Haushaltsdefizite stellen die US-Wirtschaft, wenn nichts zu ihrer Reduzierung getan wird, vor ein großes Problem, müssen aber nicht zu Inflation führen.

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