Paul Lachine

Inflation ou Déflation?

CAMBRIDGE – Les investisseurs avec lesquels j’ai discuté récemment ne sont pas sûrs s’il faut s’inquiéter d’une future inflation aux Etats-Unis ou d’une future déflation. La bonne nouvelle est que la réponse – au moins pour les quelques prochaines années – est que les investisseurs ne devraient s’inquiéter d’« aucun des deux ».

Le fort taux du chômage américain et la faiblesse des taux de capacité d’usage expliquent la petite pression haussière sur les salaires et les prix aux Etats-Unis. Et la récente crise de la valeur du dollar par rapport à l’euro et à la livre britannique y contribue en faisant baisser les coûts d’importation.

Ceux qui insistent sur le risque d’inflation pointent souvent du doigt l’énorme déficit budgétaire des Etats-Unis. L’Office parlementaire du budget (Congressional Budget Office) prévoit que ce déficit sera aux alentours de 5% du PIB pour le restant de la décennie, amenant la dette publique à 90% du PIB, alors qu’elle était de  moins de 60% en 2009. Même si ces énormes déficits constituent un problème majeur pour l’économie américaine si rien n’est entrepris pour les réduire, ils ne doivent pas pour autant être inflationnistes. 

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