Paul Lachine

是通货膨胀,还是通货紧缩?

发自剑桥——这几天来和我聊天的投资者都非常困惑,弄不清是应该担心美国未来的通货膨胀,还是要准备好迎接通货紧缩。而好消息则是——至少在未来几年内——两种状况都不需要担心。

美国当前较高的失业率以及较低的产能利用率都意味着工资和价格的上升压力不大,而最近美元相对于欧元和英镑的升值则有助于降低进口成本。

那些强调通胀风险的人经常会用美国庞大的预算赤字作口实。而国会预算办公室则预计美国的财政赤字将在未来十年平均维持在GDP的5%左右,并因此导致政府债务占GDP的比例从2009年度的低于60%上升到90%。假如我们不采取削减措施的话,这笔巨额财政赤字将成为影响美国经济的重大问题,但即便如此,它却不会成为通货膨胀的诱因。

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