Индия с полутора миллиардным населением

Население Индии сегодня составляет немногим более одного миллиарда человек и скорее всего превысит 1.5 миллиарда к середине века, обогнав Китай, прежде чем перестанет расти. Но, как тревожно это ни выглядит, фактически это представляет собой существенное снижение темпов демографического роста, если принять во внимание, что за последние 60 дет население Индии увеличилось более чем в три раза. Более того, экономика растет значительно быстрее, чем раньше. Таким образом, сможет ли Индия обеспечить достойные условия жизни своему полутора миллиардному населению?

Недавно я выступил в роли соавтора (вместе с Тимом Дайсоном, Лилой Висария и др.) исследования, заключением которого, с умеренной долей оптимизма, является то, что, в то время как Индия в состоянии регулировать рост населения страны, она стоит перед рядом очень серьезных проблем.

Действительно, уровень бедности понизился в 1990-х годах, сопровождаемый увеличением процента грамотного населения и уровня посещаемости занятий в школах. Но большинство крупных бедных штатов Индии - Бихар, Мадхия Прадеш, Орисса, Раджастан и Уттар Прадеш - страдают от сочетания сравнительно медленного экономического и быстрого демографического роста. Только экономика Раджастана идет в ногу с остальной страной, в то время как другие четыре штата не извлекли существенной выгоды из либерализации торговли и государственного регулирования.

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