L'Inde forte d'une population de 1,5 milliard d'individus

La population indienne dépasse maintenant le milliard d'individus et dépassera probablement le milliard et demi d'individus vers le milieu de notre siècle, dépassant ainsi dans le mouvement la population chinoise avant de s'arrêter. Pourtant, même si cela paraît inquiétant, cela représente un ralentissement démographique considérable : la population indienne a plus que triplé au cours des soixante dernières années. De plus, la croissance économique est bien plus rapide que par le passé. Alors l'Inde sera-t-elle capable de vivre confortablement avec une population de 1,5 milliard d'individus ?

J'ai publié récemment une étude avec Tim Dyson, Leela Visaria et d'autres collaborateurs qui concluait avec un certain optimisme que si l'Inde peut gérer sa croissance démographique, elle doit quand même faire face à un certain nombre de difficultés importantes.

Il est vrai que dans les années 1990 la pauvreté a régressé tandis que les taux d'alphabétisation et de scolarisation ont augmenté. Mais de manière inégale. La majeure partie des États indiens pauvres -- Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Rajasthan, et Uttar Pradesh - souffrent de l'effet combiné d'une croissance économique relativement faible et d'une croissance démographique rapide. Seule l'économie du Rajasthan a gardé le rythme du reste du pays, les autres quatre États n'ont pas tant profité de la libéralisation du commerce et des réglementations.

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