Indie s 1,5 miliardami lidí

Počet obyvatel Indie nyní o něco přesahuje jednu miliardu; v polovině století již bude téměř jistě převyšovat 1,5 miliardy, čímž předběhne počet obyvatel Číny, než přestane růst. Ačkoliv se to může zdát znepokojivé, ve skutečnosti to ovšem znamená značné demografické zpomalení: počet obyvatel Indie se totiž v posledních šedesáti letech více než ztrojnásobil. Indická ekonomika navíc roste mnohem rychleji než dříve. Dokáže tedy být Indie pohodlným domovem pro 1,5 miliardy lidí?

Nedávno jsem se stal spoluautorem studie (spolu s Timem Dysonem, Leelou Visariovou a dalšími), která s opatrným optimismem dospívá k závěru, že Indie sice populační růst dokáže zvládnout, ale zároveň bude čelit řadě velkých obtíží.

Faktem je, že se chudoba v zemi v devadesátých letech snížila, zatímco gramotnost a procento školní docházky u dětí vzrostly. Růst však nebyl rovnoměrný. Většina velkých chudých svazových států Indie - Bihár, Madhjapradéš, Urísa, Rádžastán a Uttarpradéš - trpí kombinací relativně pomalého hospodářského růstu s rapidním růstem demografickým. Pouze ekonomika Rádžastánu dokáže držet krok se zbytkem země; ostatním čtyřem státům nepřinesla liberalizace obchodu a uvolnění pravidel žádný velký prospěch.

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