印度和它的15亿人口

印度现在的人口是10亿多一点,到本世纪中期其人口数量几乎肯定会超过15亿,在它停止增长之前将一直超过中国的人口总数。但是,就象人们担心这种情况真的来临一样,这其实也反映了人口统计学的发展缓慢:印度的人口在过去60年里翻了三倍多,而经济增长速度却比过去快。所以,印度是否有能力为15亿人口提供舒适的家庭生活呢?

我最近和蒂姆·戴森(Tim Dyson)、里拉·维萨里阿(Leela Visaria)以及其他一些人在合作搞一个研究,其中的结论是,即使我们乐观地假设印度可以解决人口增长问题,印度仍然面临一连串的主要困难。

的确,在上个世纪90年代,印度的贫困率有所下降,同时受教育比率和入学率有所上升。但它们的发展很不平衡。大多数印度的穷邦--如比哈尔邦(Bihar)、中央邦(Madhya Pradesh)、奥里萨(Orissa)、拉贾斯坦(Rajasthan)和北方邦(Uttar Pradesh)--都面临着经济发展缓慢但人口增长迅速的问题。除了拉贾斯坦保持着和其他邦同样的经济发展速度外,另外四个邦还没有从印度的贸易和监管放开政策中获益。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/VGI5twy/zh;
  1. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    Angela Merkel’s Endgame?

    The collapse of coalition negotiations has left German Chancellor Angela Merkel facing a stark choice between forming a minority government or calling for a new election. But would a minority government necessarily be as bad as Germans have traditionally thought?

  2. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.

  3. A GrabBike rider uses his mobile phone Bay Ismoyo/Getty Images

    The Platform Economy

    While developed countries in Europe, North America, and Asia are rapidly aging, emerging economies are predominantly youthful. Nigerian, Indonesian, and Vietnamese young people will shape global work trends at an increasingly rapid pace, bringing to bear their experience in dynamic informal markets on a tech-enabled gig economy.

  4. Trump Mario Tama/Getty Images

    Profiles in Discouragement

    One day, the United States will turn the page on Donald Trump. But, as Americans prepare to observe their Thanksgiving holiday, they should reflect that their country's culture and global standing will never recover fully from the wounds that his presidency is inflicting on them.

  5. Mugabe kisses Grace JEKESAI NJIKIZANA/AFP/Getty Images

    How Women Shape Coups

    In Zimbabwe, as in all coups, much behind-the-scenes plotting continues to take place in the aftermath of the military's overthrow of President Robert Mugabe. But who the eventual winners and losers are may depend, among other things, on the gender of the plotters.

  6. Oil barrels Ahmad Al-Rubaye/Getty Images

    The Abnormality of Oil

    At the 2017 Abu Dhabi Petroleum Exhibition and Conference, the consensus among industry executives was that oil prices will still be around $60 per barrel in November 2018. But there is evidence to suggest that the uptick in global growth and developments in Saudi Arabia will push the price as high as $80 in the meantime.

  7. Israeli soldier Menahem Kahana/Getty Images

    The Saudi Prince’s Dangerous War Games

    Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is working hard to consolidate power and establish his country as the Middle East’s only hegemon. But his efforts – which include an attempt to trigger a war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon – increasingly look like the work of an immature gambler.