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Politics

ماذا تريد الهند من روسيا؟

Aug 12, 2022 Sushanta Mallick and Brigitte Granville

لندن ــ لو تخيلنا جائزة تُـمـنَـح للتعليق الأكثر اقتباسا واستشهادا به في العلاقات الدولية حتى الآن في عام 2022، فلابد وأن يكون وزير الخارجية الهندي سوبرامانيان جايشنكار بين المؤهلين للفوز. في رده على الانتقادات الموجهة إلى موقف بلاده المحايد من الحرب الروسية الأوكرانية في منتدى أمني انعقد في سلوفاكيا في يونيو/حزيران، قال جايشنكار إن "أوروبا يجب أن تخرج من العقلية التي تجعلها تعتبر مشاكل أوروبا هي مشاكل العالم وترى في ذات الوقت أن مشاكل العالم ليست مشاكل أوروبا".

مثلها كمثل أغلب الأزمات الكبرى، تسلط الحرب ضوءا قويا على عصرنا، وكانت استجابة الهند لهذه الأزمة مـنيرة بشكل خاص. الواقع أن سياسة الهند الخارجية لا تجسد الكيفية التي أدى بها الصراع إلى تكثيف اتجاهات انحسار العولمة فحسب، بل تسلط الضوء أيضا على المفارقة المتأصلة في تأكيد الهند عل نحو متزايد على "الاستقلالية الاستراتيجية" مع انقسام العالم إلى مراكز قوة متنافسة: الولايات المتحدة ونظام تحالفها مقابل الصين وتابعها الرئيسي، روسيا. يكمن جوهر هذه المفارقة في أن سعي الهند إلى الاعتماد على الذات ــ البقاء بعيدا عن مبادئ الحرب الباردة الثانية والسعي إلى الحصول على ميزة من العلاقات المتنوعة ــ يستلزم مشاركة دولية متعددة الأبعاد.

على سبيل المثال، سارع الساسة الأوروبيون الذين يفطمون بلدانهم على نحو مؤلم عن الطاقة الروسية إلى انتقاد الهند لشرائها المزيد من النفط الروسي ــ بعد أن تسببت العقوبات الغربية في خفض سعره بنحو الثلث تقريبا مقارنة بالسعر في السوق العالمية. ارتفعت مشتريات الهند من الخام الروسي إلى 1.1 مليون برميل يوميا بحلول أواخر يوليو/تموز والتي تمثل الآن أكثر من خُـمـس استهلاك الهند من النفط، مقارنة بنحو 2% فقط في العام الماضي.

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Sushanta Mallick

Writing for PS since 2002
3 Commentaries

Sushanta Mallick is Professor of International Finance at Queen Mary University of London.

Brigitte Granville

Writing for PS since 2000
36 Commentaries

Brigitte Granville, Professor of International Economics and Economic Policy at Queen Mary University of London, is the author of Remembering Inflation (Princeton University Press, 2013) and What Ails France? (McGill-Queen’s University Press, 2021).

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Margaret Bowker Aug 13, 2022

A timely and insightful article. India has a trade relationship with Russia and is neutral on Ukraine, a balanced approach which is in line with its national interests. China also trades with Russia and whilst listening to Russia's point of view, is neutral on the conflict, calling for negotiation. These two huge countries are almost like blocs in themselves, but India, whilst a democracy with ties to the West, clearly wishes to be, at least to a noticeable degree, autonomous. It is understandable and the West appears to accept it, in a Ukraine-neutral democracy. A good article.
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Dawood Mamoon Aug 13, 2022

For a Pakistani like me, it is a telling article. Pakistan also extended its hand to Russia to buy Cheap Russian Oil. However, it seemed that closer ties with Russia by Pakistan was not welcomed by USA. However instead of being a conspiracy that the ousted PTI regime presented to Pakistani people, there is an historic context to it that has both economics and politics behind West allowing India to keep its relationship with Russia and not accepting Pakistan to do similar.

First is that Pakistani economy is more of an elitist economy where it is common to present to people that USA is an aggressor and there is clash of civilization. Despite the fact that most of the development work to uplift health, education standards of common Pakistani comes from funding done by World Bank or USAID or other western international NGOs. Under Imran Khan international NGOs that were trying to empower common Pakistani's were not allowed to work freely. In contrast the elites have their property and businesses in the West while they are more closer to the western cultural values.

Then historically, India has been following an independent economic policies and the country is not only have a better democratic precedence but the world knows India for its economic success story especially after Manmohan Singh in 1990s accepted to become Indian Finance Minister after a long career in the World Bank.

Any cooperation of Pakistan or the ruling elite in the country with Russia is considered to be a strategic step towards regional power politics than as an outcome of economic necessity because Pakistani economy doesn't represent either pro business or pro poor but Pakistan's economic system mainly benefits the elites. On the other hand, India is predominantly an egalitarian economy while it also has a pro market dimension especially after 1990s whereby many Indian companies have international foot prints. Thus India Russia relationship are multi faceted and the West may not have a problem with it when the Western countries economic relationship with Russia is more entrenched. Secondly in future if Russia decides for a diplomatic solution towards Ukraine, countries like India can become important stakeholders to broker a deal for wielding influence in both Russia and the West.
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ماذا تريد الهند من روسيا؟

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