Cosa turba l’India?

CAMBRIDGE – Il recente allontanamento dell’India dalle grazie macroeconomiche è dettato da una dolorosa serie di eventi. Dopo numerosi anni di performance positive, la crescita del Pil ha registrato un brusco calo. L’output annuale crescerà con tutta probabilità meno del 5% quest’anno, in ribasso dal 6,8% del 2011 e dal 10,1% del 2010.

Le riforme si sono bloccate nel mezzo di una profonda paralisi politica. Tutte le principali economie emergenti stanno affrontando un indebolimento della domanda esterna, ma la congiuntura dell’India è stata inasprita da un calo degli investimenti che riflette una più profonda mancanza di direzione ufficiale e fiducia delle imprese. Anche le previsioni del Fondo monetario internazionale di un miglioramento modesto nel 2013 si basano sulla capacità del governo di dare vita a una gran quantità di riforme economiche in stallo.

Il recente torpore dell’India ha consolidato un notevole cambiamento di opinioni. Solo un paio d’anni fa l’India si guadagnava la reputazione di posto ideale per investire. I capi di stato hanno fatto carte false per incontrare i leader imprenditoriali a Mumbai, con la speranza di spianare la strada a una significativa espansione del commercio e degli investimenti. Ora il loro interesse è svanito, insieme ai numeri macroeconomici.

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