Une décentralisation pour l'Inde ?

CAMBRIDGE – La récente dégringolade économique de l'Inde est un événement affligeant. Après des années glorieuses, la croissance du PIB a subi un coup de frein brutal. La croissance de la production va probablement être inférieure à 5% cette année, contre 6,8% en 2011 et 10,1% en 2010.

En raison de la paralysie politique, les réformes sont au point mort. Tous les grands pays émergents sont confrontés à une baisse de la demande extérieure, mais le ralentissement de l'économie indienne est exacerbé par la chute des investissements dû à l'absence d'une ligne politique directrice et à la perte de confiance du monde des affaires. Le FMI prévoit une légère amélioration en 2013, mais cela dépendra de la capacité du gouvernement à relancer un processus de réformes économiques moribond.

Cette récente torpeur de l'Inde s'accompagne d'un changement du regard que l'on porte sur elle. Il y a seulement deux ans, l'Inde avait la réputation d'être l'endroit où il faut investir. Les chefs d'Etat faisaient la queue à Bombay pour y rencontrer les chefs d'entreprise dans l'objectif de démultiplier les échanges commerciaux et les investissements. Mais aussitôt que les indicateurs macroéconomiques ont viré à l'orange, ils ont disparu.

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