什么在困扰印度?

美国剑桥—印度最近在宏观经济方面的萎靡表现可堪哀。在多年的卓著表现后,GDP增长率开始大幅放缓。今年年产出增长很可能低于5%,而2011年为6.8%,2010年为10.1%。

改革因为没完没了的政治僵局而陷入了停顿。所有主要新兴经济体都面临着外部需求疲软的状况,但印度的减速因投资下降而被放大了,而投资下降又反映了正式方向的迷失和商业信心的滑落。就连IMF也预测,2013年印度经济只会略有改善,因为政府难以令陷入停顿的一系列经济改革重获生机。

印度最近的堕落反映了全球观点令人注目的变化。几年前,印度还是最酷的投资目的地。各国首脑一个接一个地来到孟买会见商业领袖,希望外请贸易和投资大扩张的障碍。如今,他们早已意兴阑珊,宏观经济数字也随之一蹶不振。

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