Mumbai slums Subhash Sharma/ZumaPress

Las ciudades mortíferas de India

SINGAPUR – La China y la India propulsan las tendencias de población y urbanización de Asia. De acuerdo con estudio de McKinsey de 2010, se prevé que los dos países representen el 62% del crecimiento de la población urbana del continente entre 2005 y 2025, y a nivel mundial la previsión es de un asombroso 40%.

Estas estadísticas acentúan la necesidad urgente de una gestión de planificación y crecimiento urbanos. Sin embargo, es igualmente importante reconocer las diferencias cruciales entre los dos países. Es probable que para India sea mucho más difícil abordar sus desafíos en el tema de población debido a las variaciones en el desarrollo de crecimiento urbano y diferencias en los enfoques de política ambiental que hay entre los dos países.

Puede que China tenga una población que representa el 20% de la humanidad, pero durante más de dos décadas sus tasas de fertilidad han sido inferiores al nivel de sustitución (el requerido para mantener las cifras de población actual), cuyas previsiones de crecimiento se volverán negativas en las siguientes dos décadas. Como resultado, la India cuyas previsiones de aumento de la población seguirán siendo positivas en el futuro inmediato, está lista para convertirse en el país más poblado del mundo. En muchas de las previsiones, la población de la India superará la de China para 2022.

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