Mumbai slums Subhash Sharma/ZumaPress

Todbringende Umweltverschmutzung in indischen Städten

SINGAPUR – China und Indien sind die Triebfedern der Bevölkerungsentwicklung und des Trends zur Urbanisierung in Asien. Einer McKinsey-Studie aus dem Jahr 2010 zufolge werden zwischen 2005 und 2025 voraussichtlich 62% des Bevölkerungswachstums in Städten auf den asiatischen Kontinent und überwältigende 40% eines solchen Wachstums weltweit auf diese beiden Länder entfallen.

Statistiken wie diese unterstreichen die Dringlichkeit der Städteplanung und des Wachstumsmanagements. Ebenso wichtig ist es allerdings, den entscheidenden Unterschieden zwischen den beiden Ländern Rechnung zu tragen. Aufgrund voneinander abweichender Entwicklungspfade ihres urbanen Wachstums sowie ihrer unterschiedlichen umweltpolitischen Ansätze dürfte es weitaus schwieriger sein, die demografischen Herausforderungen Indiens anzugehen.

20% der Menschheit sind zwar in China zu Hause, doch seine Fertilitätsrate liegt seit mehr als zwei Jahrzehnten unterhalb des sogenannten „Ersatzniveaus“ (das dafür sorgt, dass die Populationsgröße stabil bleibt). Es wird erwartet, dass das Bevölkerungswachstum innerhalb der kommenden zwei Jahrzehnte negativ werden wird. Infolgedessen ist Indien, wo das Bevölkerungswachstum Prognosen zufolge auf absehbare Zeit positiv bleiben wird, im Begriff, das bevölkerungsreichste Land der Erde zu werden. In den meisten Hochrechnungen wird davon ausgegangen, dass die Bevölkerung Indiens bis 2022 größer sein wird als die chinesische.

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