Mumbai slums Subhash Sharma/ZumaPress

De dodelijke steden van India

SINGAPORE – China en India zijn de motoren achter de Aziatische trends op het gebied van bevolking en verstedelijking. Volgens een studie van McKinsey uit 2010 wordt verwacht dat de landen van 2005 tot 2025 samen verantwoordelijk zullen zijn voor 62% van de groei van de stedelijke bevolking van het continent en voor een ongelooflijke 40% van deze groei wereldwijd.

Statistieken als deze onderstrepen de urgentie van stadsplanning en groeimanagement. Maar het onderkennen van de cruciale verschillen tussen de twee landen is van even groot belang. Variaties in hun stedelijke groeitrajecten, zowel als verschillen in hun benadering van milieubeleid maken het aannemelijk dat de Indiase bevolkingsuitdagingen veel lastiger tegemoet te treden zullen zijn.

China is dan wel thuisland van 20% van de mensheid, maar meer dan twintig jaar lang is het geboortecijfer lager geweest dan het ‘vervangings-’ niveau (het cijfer benodigd om de huidige populatie in stand te houden), en de verwachting is dat de bevolkingsgroei binnen de komende twintig jaar negatief zal worden. Als resultaat hiervan is India, waar de bevolkingsgroei de afzienbare toekomst voorspeld wordt positief te blijven, het gedoodverfde meest bevolkte land van de wereld. De meeste projecties voorspellen dat de Indiase bevolkingscijfers die van China tegen 2022 zullen voorbijstreven.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.


Log in;
  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now