Mumbai slums Subhash Sharma/ZumaPress

印度致命的城市

新加坡——中国和印度正在推动亚洲人口和城市化进程。2010年麦肯锡的一项研究显示2005至2025年两国预计在亚洲城市人口增长中将占62%,并在全球人口增长中占到令人吃惊的40%的份额。

像这样的统计数据凸显了城市规划和增长管理的紧迫性。但承认两国间的关键差异同样重要。中印两国城市发展道路和环境政策差异很有可能进一步加大印度国内人口问题的解决难度。

中国可能占世界总人口的20%,但二十多年来其生育率一直低于“更替”(即维持目前人口所要达到的)水平,而且今后二十年内预计人口增长将转为负数。因此在可以预见的未来将维持人口正增长的印度注定将成为世界上人口最多的国家。绝大多数预测认为印度人口将在2022年超过中国。

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