Индия или Китай?

НЬЮ-ДЕЛИ. Когда президент США Барак Обама посетил Индию в ноябре и похвалил ее лидеров за растущий успех и мастерство их экономики, в центр внимания вернулся молчаливый вопрос: будет ли Китай все время расти быстрее, чем Индия, или Индия вскоре его догонит?

Это состязание берет свое начало с 1947 года, когда Индия получила независимость и демократия стала определяющей чертой страны, в то время как Китай встал на путь коммунизма после увенчавшегося успехом «Долгого марша» Мао Цзэдуна. Обе страны, «спящие гиганты», в какой-то момент должны были пробудиться от спячки. Однако, поскольку модели экономического роста, которые были в моде в то время, делали акцент на накопление капитала, у Китая было широко распространенное преимущество, поскольку он мог повысить свой уровень инвестиций значительно больше, чем Индия, где демократия ограничивала степень, в которой население могло облагаться налогом для увеличения внутренних сбережений.

Тем не менее, случилось так, что эти гиганты откладывали решение этого вопроса ‑ до 1980-х годов в Китае и начала 1990-х годов в Индии ‑ в основном, поскольку обе страны проводили контрпродуктивную политику, которая нанесла вред производительности их инвестиционных усилий.

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