Indien oder China?

NEU DELHI – Als US-Präsident Barack Obama im November in Indien weilte und die politische Führung zum wachsenden Erfolg und den wirtschaftlichen Fähigkeiten beglückwünschte, rückte eine unausgesprochene Frage wieder in den Vordergrund: Wird China auf unbestimmte Zeit schneller wachsen als Indien oder wird Indien China in Kürze überholen?  

Tatsächlich reicht dieser Wettstreit bis in das Jahr 1947 zurück, als Indien seine Unabhängigkeit erlangte und die Demokratie zum prägenden Merkmal des Landes wurde, während sich China nach dem Langen Marsch und dem Erfolg Mao Zedongs dem Kommunismus zuwandte. Man rechnete bei beiden „schlafenden Giganten“, dass sie irgendwann aus ihrem Schlummer erwachen würden. Aber nachdem das damals in Mode befindliche Wachstumsmodell den Schwerpunkt auf Kapitalakkumulation legte, hielt man China für bevorzugt, weil es seine Investitionsrate auf höhere Werte steigern konnte als Indien, wo die Demokratie das Ausmaß der Besteuerung der Menschen zur Erhöhung der nationalen Ersparnisse begrenzte.

Allerdings schliefen beide Giganten weiter – China bis in die 1980er und Indien bis in die frühen 1990er Jahre. Dies, weil sich beide Länder ein kontraproduktives politisches Rahmenwerk zu eigen machten, das die Produktivität ihrer Investitionsbemühungen lähmte.

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