Indie, nebo Čína?

DILLÍ – Když americký prezident Barack Obama navštívil v listopadu Indii a pochválil její představitele za rostoucí úspěchy a zdatnost jejich ekonomiky, vrátila se do centra dění nevyslovená otázka: Poroste Čína rychleji než Indie donekonečna, anebo ji Indie v brzké době předstihne?

Kořeny tohoto soutěžení sahají až do roku 1947, kdy Indie získala nezávislost a určujícím rysem země se stala demokracie, zatímco Čína se s úspěchem Mao Ce-tunga po Dlouhém pochodu uchýlila ke komunismu. Očekávalo se, že se obě země považované za „spící obry“ v nějaké fázi ze svého spánku probudí. Protože však tehdejší módní růstový model kladl hlavní důraz na akumulaci kapitálu, všeobecně se soudilo, že Čína má výhodu, protože může zvedat úrokovou sazbu výše než Indie, kde demokracie omezovala míru, do jaké lze obyvatelstvo zdaňovat za účelem zvýšení domácích úspor.

Nakonec však oba obři spali dál – Čína do 80. let a Indie do počátku 90. let –, a to především proto, že obě země přijaly za svůj kontraproduktivní politický rámec, jenž ochromoval produktivitu jejich investičního úsilí.

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