Indiens wirtschaftliche Hotspots

MUMBAI – Die indische Volkswirtschaft könnte sich schon bald wieder in Bewegung setzen. Die neue Regierung stellt die Haushaltsdisziplin wieder her und aktiviert die Bürokratie. Dies lässt hoffen, dass zunehmendes unternehmerisches Vertrauen zu erneuten Investitionen führen könnte, vor allem in Infrastruktur. Aber die allgemeinen Wachstumsaussichten Indiens verdecken ein Geflecht wirtschaftlicher Möglichkeiten auf den Ebenen der Bundesstaaten, Bezirke, Großstädte und sogar Kleinstädte – Möglichkeiten, die Unternehmen nur durch intensives Nachforschen entdecken können.

Die wirtschaftlichen Daten Indiens sind vielversprechend. Das jährliche BIP-Wachstum wird bis 2025 auf 6,4% bis 7,7% geschätzt. Verglichen mit 4,7% im letzten Jahr sind dies gute Werte, die fast an den Durchschnitt der zehn Jahre vor 2012 von 7,7% anknüpfen. Darüber hinaus stehen sie in scharfem Kontrast zu den Stagnationserwartungen in den Industriestaaten. Diese Beschleunigung würde Indien einen Platz unter den am schnellsten wachsenden großen Volkswirtschaften sichern und die Anzahl der indischen Konsumenten, die sich Konsumgüter leisten können, von 27 Millionen im Jahr 2012 auf 89 Millionen bis 2025 erhöhen.

Aber das Potenzial ist sehr ungleich verteilt. Laut einem neuen Bericht wird über die Hälfte des indischen BIP-Wachstums zwischen heute und 2025 aus lediglich acht Bundesstaaten kommen (Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Kerala, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Uttarakhand), in denen nur 31% der Bevölkerung des Landes lebt. Gemeinsam mit vier dynamischen Stadtstaaten (Neu Delhi, Goa, Chandigarh und Pondicherry), werden diese Bundesstaaten Heimat von 50 Millionen Konsumenten oder 57% der Mittelklassehaushalte des Landes sein.

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