De economische hotspots van India

MUMBAI – De economie van India zou spoedig weer kunnen gaan aantrekken. De nieuwe regering is de fiscale discipline aan het herstellen en de bureaucratie aan het vitaliseren, wat het optimisme voedt dat een groeiend ondernemersvertrouwen het investeringsklimaat opnieuw zal doen opbloeien, vooral qua infrastructuur. Maar de vooruitzichten voor de totale groei van India verhullen een lappendeken aan economische kansen binnen staten, districten, steden en zelfs dorpen – kansen die bedrijven slechts bloot kunnen leggen door zorgvuldig onderzoek.

De economische data van India zijn veelbelovend. De jaarlijkse groei van het gemiddelde bbp wordt tot 2025 voorspeld te variëren van 6,4% tot 7,7%. Dit is gunstig in vergelijking tot de 4,7% van afgelopen jaar en ligt dichtbij het gemiddelde van 7,7% dat in de tien jaar voor 2012 genoteerd werd. Bovendien contrasteert het scherp met de verwachtingen van een langdurige stagnatie in de eerste wereld. Deze acceleratie zou India scharen onder ’s werelds snelst groeiende grote economieën en het aantal Indiase consumenten dat zich luxeartikelen kan veroorloven verhogen van 27 miljoen in 2012 naar 89 miljoen in 2025.

Maar het potentieel is verre van uniform. Volgens een nieuw rapport zal meer dan de helft van de Indiase bbp-groei tussen nu en 2025 uit slechts acht staten komen (Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Kerala, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh en Uttarakhand), waar slechts 31% van de bevolking van het land woont. Samen met vier dynamische stadstaten (New Delhi, Goa, Chandigarh en Pondicherry) zullen deze staten dan onderdak bieden aan 50 miljoen consumenten, of 57% van ’s lands middenklasse huishoudens.

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