印度经济热点

孟买—印度经济也许很快就会重新上路。新政府正在重建财政纪律、激励官僚,这让人们乐观地认为高涨的商业信心能够重新激活投资,特别是是基础设施投资。但印度总体增长前景掩盖了存在于邦、区、市甚至镇的经济机会图景——公司只有通过仔细研究才能发现这些机会。

印度经济数据令人振奋。2025年前的平均年GDP增长预计将达到6.4—7.7%。这比去年4.7%的注资漂亮不少,已接近于截至2012年的十年的平均增长记录。此外,这一预测与发达国家长期停滞的预期形成了鲜明对比。如此经济加速将让印度成为世界增长最快的大经济体之一,并让有能力随意消费的印度人数量从2012年的2,700万增加到2025年的8,900万。

但潜力并不是均匀分布的。根据最新报告,从现在到2025年,印度GDP增长的一大半将来自八个邦(古吉拉特、哈里亚纳、喜马偕尔、南方、喀拉拉、马哈拉施特拉、泰米尔纳德、安德拉和北阿坎德),这八个邦只涵盖了31%的印度人口。这八个邦加上四个城市邦(新德里、果阿、昌迪加尔和本地治里)将拥有5,000万消费者,或57%的印度中产阶级家庭。

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