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La economía en épocas de inestabilidad política

MILÁN/STANFORD – En los últimos 35 años, las democracias occidentales han experimentado un rápido aumento de la inestabilidad política, caracterizado por frecuentes cambios en los partidos gobernantes y sus programas y filosofías, impulsados al menos en parte por la transformación y las dificultades económicas. La pregunta ahora es cómo mejorar el desempeño económico en una época en que la inestabilidad política dificulta la implementación de políticas eficaces.

En un artículo reciente, uno de nosotros (David Brady) mostró la correlación entre el aumento de la inestabilidad política y el empeoramiento del desempeño económico, señalando que los países con un desempeño inferior a la media han experimentado la mayor volatilidad electoral. Más específicamente, esa inestabilidad se corresponde con una caída en la participación del empleo industrial o manufacturero en los países avanzados Aunque la extensión de esa caída varía un poco entre países —ha sido menos brusca en Alemania que en Estados Unidos, por ejemplo— se trata de un patrón bastante ubicuo.

Especialmente durante los últimos 15 años, tecnologías digitales cada vez más poderosas permitieron la automatización y desintermediación de los trabajos administrativos y manuales «rutinarios». Con los avances en robótica, materiales, impresión 3D e inteligencia artificial, es esperable que los trabajos «rutinarios» pasibles de automatización sean cada vez más.

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