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政治动荡时期的经济学

米兰—过去35年,西方民主郭嘉政治动荡急速加剧,其特征是执政党及其计划和哲学更迭频仍,部分原因是经济转型和困难。现在的问题是如何在政治动荡制约有效决策的情况下改善经济表现。

在一篇最新文章中,本文作者之一(大卫·布雷迪)发现政治动荡加剧与经济表现下滑之间存在相关性,指出经济表现低于平均水平的国家,选举波动性最大。更具体地说,政治动荡对应着发达国家工业和制造业就业比例的下降。尽管下降程度各有各的不同——比如德国的下降程度小于美国——但这一模式是相当普遍的。

特别是过去15年来,日益强大的数字技术带来了“常规”白领和蓝领岗位的自动化和脱媒。机器人、材料、3D打印和人工智能方面的进步让我们能够期待可以自动化的“常规”就业岗位范畴还会继续扩大。

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