En busca de la demanda global

Una vez más, Alemania y Japón han caído en la recesión. Una vez más, la segunda y tercera economías industriales más importantes del mundo están restando y no sumando al crecimiento de la demanda agregada mundial. Desde el punto de vista de los ciudadanos alemanes y japoneses, estas son malas noticias. Las tecnologías globales, que mejoran rápidamente, deberían hacer que fuera relativamente fácil obtener niveles crecientes de producción y calidad de vida. Sin embargo, las economías alemana y japonesa han tenido dificultades para lograrlo en la última década y media. Ciertamente todo el mundo preveía hace quince años que el estado actual de ambas economías sería mucho mejor.

Desde el punto de vista de la estabilidad política global, la recesión y el estancamiento en Alemania y Japón son noticias aún peores potencialmente. Los gobiernos democráticos hacen un trato con sus pueblos en el que ganan su legitimidad a largo plazo a partir de su capacidad de suministrar niveles de vida crecientes y empleo alto.

La crisis, la depresión y el estancamiento hacen que el pueblo piense en la ineficacia y la corrupción de los políticos de las corrientes principales, en los poderes ilegítimos de los intereses especiales y en el cretinismo de los parlamentos. Los pensamientos de la gente en tiempos de crisis y depresión no son falsos. Los políticos de las corrientes principales a menudo son ineficaces y corruptos (moralmente, si no legalmente), los intereses especiales tienen poderes amplios e ilegítimos y las legislaturas con frecuencia padecen cretinismo. Pero no hay un país en el que los intentos por sacar conclusiones políticas a raíz de esos sentimientos populares no hayan acabado en el desastre.

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