Una defensa optimista del euro

CAMBRIDGE – La incertidumbre sobre las perspectivas del euro y la eurozona continúa. Sin embargo, vale la pena considerar un escenario favorable para el futuro de la moneda común en vista de acontecimientos recientes en el Banco Central Europeo en Alemania, y en los mercados financieros.

El BCE se ha comprometido a comprar bonos soberanos italianos y españoles para mantener bajas las tasas de interés de estos países, siempre y cuando soliciten líneas de crédito al Mecanismo Europeo de Estabilidad (MEDE) y cumplan su compromiso de realizar reformas fiscales. El Tribunal Constitucional de Alemania ha aprobado la participación del país en el MEDE, y la Canciller, Angela Merkel, también ve con buenos ojos el plan de compra de bonos del BCE, pese a las fuertes objeciones del Bundesbank. Asimismo, el mercado internacional de bonos lo ha avalado mediante la reducción de la tasa de interés de los bonos italianos a diez años, a un 4.8%, y de los de España, a un 5.5%.

Las tasas de interés de los bonos italianos ya estaban bajando incluso antes de que el presidente del BCE, Mario Dragui, anunciara los planes condicionados de compra de bonos. Ello refleja los importantes avances que ha logrado el gobierno del primer ministro de Italia, Mario Monti. Una nueva legislación desacelerará sustancialmente el crecimiento de las prestaciones de jubilación, y  el aumento de impuestos sobre los bienes inmobiliarios ocupados por los propietarios que ha aplicado el gobierno de Monti incrementará de forma significativa los ingresos sin que se generen los efectos de incentivos adversos que ocurrirían de subir los impuestos al ingreso personal, a la nómina o al valor agregado.

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