Scénario optimiste pour l’euro

CAMBRIDGE – Les perspectives demeurent aujourd’hui encore incertaines quant à l’avenir de l’euro et de la zone euro. Néanmoins, les événements récemment observés à la Banque centrale européenne, en Allemagne, ainsi que sur les marchés financiers mondiaux, pourraient nous permettre d’envisager la possibilité d’un scénario favorable au futur de la monnaie unique.

La BCE a promis de racheter les obligations souveraines italiennes et espagnoles afin de maintenir aussi bas que possible leurs taux d’intérêt, à condition que ces États sollicitent des lignes de crédit auprès du Mécanisme européen de stabilité, et adhèrent aux réformes fiscales convenues. La Cour constitutionnelle allemande a approuvé la participation du pays au MES, et la chancelière Angela Merkel a donné sa bénédiction au plan d’achat d’obligations de la BCE, malgré de fortes objections publiques de la part de la Bundesbank. Le marché obligataire international a quant à lui exprimé son approbation en réduisant à 4,8% les taux d’intérêt sur les obligations italiennes à dix ans, et à 5,5% pour l’Espagne.

Les taux obligataires italiens avaient déjà diminué avant l’annonce du président de la BCE, Mario Draghi, concernant les plans d’achat d’obligations sous conditions. Ceci avait reflété les progrès substantiels accomplis par le gouvernement du Premier ministre italien Mario Monti. La nouvelle législation s’apprête à ralentir sensiblement l’augmentation des prestations de retraite, tandis que l’augmentation de l’imposition sur les biens immobiliers occupés par leur propriétaire, décidée par le gouvernement Monti, est vouée à engendrer des recettes importantes sans les effets incitatifs négatifs qui se produiraient en cas d’augmentation des taux relatifs au revenu personnel, aux salaires, ou encore des taxes sur la valeur ajoutée.

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