2013年风险共担

纽约––就我而言,2012年的精彩瞬间是我在困难时刻得到了来自一名消防队员的鼓励信息。他说我提出的尾端风险概念很容易理解。他的问题是:为什么那些风险大师、学者和金融模型师反而会不明白?

其实这条信息本身已经告诉我们答案。此人是位消防员,他承担不起曲解风险所带来的后果。一旦出错将对他本人造成直接的损害。换言之,他自己的切身利益牵涉其中。此外,他是个值得尊敬的人,在没有额外酬劳的情况下用自己的生命去冒险。

切身利益概念关系到纷繁复杂的世界能否正常运转。不透明度的制度激励经营者在谋取利益的同时隐藏风险。没有任何风险管理法能够取代切身利益——特别在信息既不透明又不对称的前提下,此外经济学家所谓的委托代理问题也无法避免。

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